VMT Regulations Are Costing County Much Needed Housing

SDBJ GUEST COMMENTARY

By Lori Holt Pfeiler

March 25, 2025

Not long ago I said something that made the rounds in the local media.

“The county is dead to us,” I said.

I made that point because the county’s anti-housing regulations have shut down virtually all home building in the unincorporated areas of San Diego County – where land actually exists to build – making it even more difficult for families to buy a home. As our housing crisis deepens, so do the impacts. It affects our ability to connect with each other, forces a growing number of people to commute long distances, creates even more greenhouse gas emissions, and pushes some companies to other parts of the state or country, taking good-paying jobs with them.

On the layer cake of regulations at the county, there’s one that’s especially harmful to housing. Intended to cut down greenhouse gas emissions by reducing car trips, the county’s Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) regulations have had the opposite effect.

“If the county’s goal is to stop housing development, their VMT policy has succeeded,” local economist Gary London said recently. “However, if the goal is to reduce vehicle carbon emissions, the policy has failed miserably.”

London made his point in the release of a new study he and his partner, Nathan Moeder, conducted for the BIA on the county’s VMT regulations. That analysis concluded the county’s far-reaching regulation has had “significant negative impacts on home building”
The study states: “A growing concern is the I-15 corridor commute, where an estimated 47,073 persons commute from their homes in Riverside County to their San Diego jobs, a clear indication of the housing/job connection. This issue is compounded by the 60,000 northbound vehicles crossing the border by individuals who reside in Tijuana and work in San Diego County.”

According to London, there is no environmental benefit from the county’s policy. In fact, he says, carbon emissions are actually higher under VMT. VMT also is in conflict with alternative energy vehicle mandates that kick in next year. Electric vehicles, for example, do not produce emissions. Further, the county’s VMT policy does not acknowledge that roughly 40 percent of jobs can be performed from home.

The county’s General Plan originally envisioned the development of 58,000 homes in unincorporated areas to meet growing demand. However, the county’s adoption of the Transportation Study Guide in 2022, which incorporated VMT as a metric for assessing transportation impacts under CEQA, drastically increased barriers to building new homes. While the county recently attempted to promote housing development in so-called “VMT Efficient Areas,” these sites would accommodate fewer than 3,000 housing units.

Additionally, many of the sites selected by the county are not conducive for the development of homes for a variety of reasons, according to the county’s own Development Feasibility Analysis (DFA).

As a result of the confluence of strict “environmental” rules, homebuilders have been unable to move forward with as many as 10,000 much-needed housing units previously approved by the San Diego County Board of Supervisors, the London Moeder analysis found. Some homebuilders have simply stopped doing business with the county at a time when housing applications should be encouraged to help meet the growing demand and address our housing affordability crisis.

Costly regulations like the VMT policy only serve to stymie housing production and exacerbate our housing crisis, driving up home prices even more, and disenfranchising an even greater number of San Diegans, many of whom are already priced out of our unaffordable housing market.

Despite the best efforts by the City of San Diego and some other municipalities, only the unincorporated areas of the county can close the massive housing unit deficit – estimated at 75,000 units – harming our region. But instead of closing that gap, the county is pricing out middle-income families, contributing to out-migration, harming our environment, and negatively impacting our regional economy.

According to the soon to be released 2024 General Plan Annual Progress Report, the County of San Diego experienced an 11 percent reduction in newly permitted homes from 2023 to 2024. Of the 1,088 permitted homes in 2024, 489 (45 percent) were ADUs. The London Moeder analysis warns that continued implementation of current VMT policies will make it nearly impossible to meet housing goals outlined in the county’s General Plan.

The Building Industry Association has formally urged the County Board of Supervisors to eliminate its VMT policies and work diligently to implement the original housing goals outlined in the General Plan.

Without adjustments to the current policy, housing availability in San Diego County will continue to dwindle.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Lori Holt Pfeiler is CEO of the San Diego County Building Industry Association.